Food inflation drops to 8.89%, lowest level in 14 years as headline rate eases to 15.10%

 

Nigeria’s food inflation dropped to 8.89 per cent year-on-year in January 2026, marking its lowest level in over 14 years, according to the latest Consumer Price Index report released by the National Bureau of Statistics.

Headline inflation also edged down slightly to 15.10 per cent in January from 15.15 per cent in December 2025, defying earlier projections that it could rise to 19 per cent.

The food inflation rate represents the first single-digit figure in 128 months and the lowest since August 2011, when it stood at 8.66 per cent. Data showed a sharp year-on-year decline from 29.63 per cent in January 2025 to 8.89 per cent in January 2026  a drop of 20.73 percentage points. On a month-on-month basis, food inflation contracted by 6.02 per cent, compared to a 0.36 per cent decline recorded in December.

The bureau attributed the slowdown to falling prices of key staples such as yam, eggs, green peas, groundnut oil, soybeans, palm oil, maize, guinea corn, beans, beef, melon, and cassava.

On a 12-month average basis, food inflation moderated to 20.29 per cent in January 2026 from 38.47 per cent a year earlier. This follows a prolonged surge between 2022 and 2024, when food inflation peaked at 40.87 per cent in June 2024 before gradually easing through 2025.

Headline inflation showed a similar trend. The January rate of 15.10 per cent was 12.51 percentage points lower than the 27.61 per cent recorded in January 2025, making it the lowest level since November 2020. Month-on-month, the headline rate stood at negative 2.88 per cent, indicating a general decline in average prices during the month. The Consumer Price Index fell to 127.4 in January from 131.2 in December.

Urban inflation declined to 15.36 per cent year-on-year, while rural inflation eased to 14.44 per cent. Core inflation, which excludes agricultural produce and energy, also dropped to 17.72 per cent from 25.27 per cent a year earlier.

State-by-state data revealed disparities. Benue recorded the highest year-on-year headline inflation rate at 22.48 per cent, followed by Kogi and the Federal Capital Territory. Ebonyi, Katsina, and Imo posted the lowest rates.

Despite the improved figures, members of the Organised Private Sector urged caution, noting that prices remain high. The National Vice President of the National Association of Small-Scale Industrialists, Kuti-George, attributed the marginal improvement to increased agricultural output and relative exchange rate stability, currently around N1,350 to the dollar.

However, the Director-General of the National Association of Small and Medium Enterprises, Eke Ubiji, argued that the easing inflation rate has not translated into meaningful relief for consumers, stressing that the cost of living remains elevated.

Overall, while the January data points to a broad moderation in price pressures—largely driven by declining food costs stakeholders maintain that market prices remain high, and the economic impact of previous inflation spikes is still being felt.